GF Futures supply and demand after the first loose plastic high volatility ssport

GF Futures: supply and demand first tight loose plastic high shock clients view the latest market Abstract: National Day after the LDPE device has been successfully put into operation in Xinjiang Shenhua, co-founder of transit is also expected in late October will be put in, and the device maintenance in August and September continue to drive, coupled with the physical delivery of goods gradually into the spot market circulation impact spot market the expected supply pressure will be a substantial increase in the three quarter. However, due to the national day two barrels of oil positive to the stock price, resulting in numerical Festival Petrochemical stocks at very low levels, National Day during the crude oil pull up sharply lower the bullish sentiment warming up actively stocking, plastic energy. Looking ahead, we believe that the current in the plastic of the season, although the supply side pressure will gradually appear in the fourth quarter, but for the polyethylene industry huge volume, short-term plastic inventory pressure is very low, short-term there is still at high energy LLDPE. The trend of L1701 L1705 trend after the Mid Autumn Festival, the maintenance unit in August continue to drive, coupled with the physical delivery of goods gradually into the spot circulation impact spot market, tight supply pattern changed slightly. However, after the Mid Autumn Festival is the National Day holiday, according to the law in the past, two barrels of oil and petrochemical stocks will be tired base of about 250 thousand tons, the recent petrochemical enterprises have taken the initiative to the stock price, resulting in spot prices led by futures situation. Looking ahead, we believe that although the current season in plastic, but the pressure on the supply side will gradually appear in the fourth quarter, LLDPE short-term pressure significantly. Once the late new device put in strength less than expected, or L1701 declined greatly by basis larger, 1701-1705 is set there will be a good opportunity to intervene. The fourth quarter of the supply pressure or emerge from the latest launch capacity situation, Shenhua Xinjiang (250 thousand tons LDPE) device has been achieved in September 23rd in turn, polymerization unit will be test at the end of September, National Day has successfully put Erdos; co-founder of transit (300 thousand tons and 370 thousand tons of full density LDPE) MTO device at the early morning of September 24th test success, at the end of October the output of qualified products of polymerization. Therefore, Shenhua and Xinjiang transit co-founder of the four quarter device will ease the tight supply pattern. Another set of devices – Jiangsu Shenghong sailboat (100 thousand tons LDPE) has been delayed until 2017, this device is not on the formation of L1701 large impact. Therefore, the fourth quarter of the supply side of the new supply will be significantly higher than the three quarter. At the same time, we note that the fourth quarter of the device maintenance and less maintenance device, after the Mid Autumn Festival period continue to drive, this also increased the supply side impact. Since September is a sensitive phase of the 1609 contract physical delivery, market bulls sometimes worried about the physical delivery of goods into the spot market after the price will be suppressed. In this regard, we believe that the physical delivery volume of plastic will be much less than the amount of delivery of PP, but also the information obtained by the survey, the absolute value of physical delivery volume is not large. So this impact is not large, after the September contract delivery, the market.相关的主题文章: